B&D Update 6/24/2025 - TINA Steps Aside: Market Perspectives Amid Geopolitical Tensions

For those familiar with our previous updates, you may recall the acronym TINA—“There Is No Alternative”—which reflected a period when low interest rates left investors with few viable options outside of equities. With interest rates near zero, stocks were often the only asset class offering the potential for returns aligned with long-term financial goals.

Today, the landscape has shifted. Cash and bonds now offer more attractive yields—approximately 4% for cash and 5%–7% for bonds, depending on credit risk. As a result, investors have been reallocating capital into these areas, and we have done the same within many of our portfolios. We’ve also increased exposure to international equities, which we find compelling for several reasons.

Markets continue to navigate a complex risk environment. Over the weekend, US military attacks in Iran against their nuclear program added to global uncertainty. While tensions remain elevated, current market reactions suggest a degree of resilience. As of this writing (June 23, 2025), equity markets are showing some strength, and oil prices are trending lower, perhaps reflecting that there might be a current sentiment that Iran has few allies and lacks the military resources to cause broad economic disruption.

Looking ahead, the situation remains fluid. Analysts, including former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Admiral James Stavridis, have outlined several potential paths forward for the region. These range from de-escalation and internal political shifts to more disruptive scenarios that could impact global energy markets and interest rate expectations.  It is simply too soon to tell what actions Iran will take and how those actions will impact the global economy.

Given this uncertainty, we anticipate continued volatility in both equity and commodity markets. However, we believe well-diversified, balanced portfolios remain well-positioned to navigate these challenges and support long-term investment objectives.

As always, we welcome your questions and are here to provide guidance and reassurance during uncertain times.

Take care,

The Bond&Devick Team